TMC Stock: its recent price movements and latest news – What Reddit is Saying

Generated Title: The Metals Company: CFO's Bold Claim vs. Balance Sheet Reality

TMC, The Metals Company, finds itself once again in the spotlight, this time fueled by after-hours comments from CFO Craig Shesky. He essentially dared short sellers to keep betting against them. The stock popped nearly 24% after that. But let’s dive deeper than the headlines and the bravado. Is this a genuine turning point, or just another chapter in TMC's volatile story?

Shesky’s confidence stems, in part, from the company’s estimated $23.6 billion worth of polymetallic nodules on the Pacific Ocean floor. That's a hefty figure. It's easy to see why management might feel undervalued with a current market cap hovering around $2 billion. But that "$23.6 billion" figure requires serious scrutiny. These are in-situ resources. That doesn't account for extraction costs, regulatory hurdles, or, crucially, market prices at the time of actual sale. Resource estimates are almost always inflated. It's the nature of the game.

The Cash Question

The CFO also highlighted TMC's relatively strong cash position of $115 million, with a potential $430 million more from warrants. That sounds reassuring, but let’s put that in perspective. They burned through $184.5 million last quarter. That gives them, at the current burn rate, about two quarters of runway, not a couple of years. The warrants could extend that, sure, but that depends on the stock price remaining high enough to make exercising them attractive. It's a conditional lifeline, not a guaranteed one.

And this is the part of the report that I find genuinely puzzling. Shesky claims a "strong cash position" and a "very clear path towards regulatory certainty." Those two statements seem, at best, optimistic. "Strong" is relative, and "certainty" is a strong word to use when you're dealing with international regulatory bodies and nascent technology.

The October rally, which saw TMC shares briefly surge above $11, was driven by geopolitical tensions and hype around critical minerals. But as those tensions eased, the stock plummeted just as quickly, dipping below $5 before rebounding somewhat. This isn't a story of fundamental value; it's a story of speculative trading. The initial surge was closely tied to China's export restrictions. As diplomatic tensions eased, the urgency diminished, leading to profit-taking among traders. TMC Stock Attempts A Comeback After Rare Earth Hype Faded, Targeting $11

Government Support: A Double-Edged Sword

The executive order signed by former President Trump to accelerate deep-sea mining operations is certainly a positive signal. It indicates a desire within the U.S. government to secure domestic sources of critical minerals. TMC is in talks with the Department of Energy and the Pentagon. However, government interest doesn't equal guaranteed success. Regulatory approvals are still a long way off, and environmental concerns remain a significant obstacle.

Environmental groups are already raising alarms about the potential ecological damage of deep-sea mining. These concerns aren't just academic; they could translate into stricter regulations or even outright bans, jeopardizing TMC's entire business model. The company's ambition to extract valuable metals such as nickel, cobalt, copper and manganese from the ocean floor remains central to its vision. However, commercialisation is still a distant goal. TMC continues to operate at a loss, and the capital required to scale deep-sea mining remains substantial.

The Reddit threads and online forums discussing TMC stock (I've glanced at a few) are filled with extreme opinions—either unwavering bullishness or outright condemnation. Quantifying the sentiment, I'd estimate about 65% are positive, 35% negative, but that's just a snapshot. The real signal is the intensity of both sides.

Deutsche Bank recently raised its 2026 gold prediction to US$4,450, citing structural demand increases. While this indirectly benefits TMC (by increasing the perceived value of seabed minerals), it's a highly indirect correlation. The real driver for TMC remains its ability to navigate regulatory hurdles, secure funding, and demonstrate the economic viability of its deep-sea mining operations.

CFO Bravado Doesn't Change the Fundamentals

TMC is a high-risk, high-reward play. The potential upside is enormous, but so are the challenges. Shesky's comments might provide a short-term boost to the stock price, but they don't change the underlying fundamentals. Investors should approach TMC with caution, focusing on the data, not the hype.