TMC Stock: Price Action and Key Developments – What Reddit is Saying
Generated Title: TMC's CFO Warns Shorts: Data or Delusion?
TMC, the deep-sea mining outfit, is making headlines again. This time, it's not about rare earth hype or environmental concerns, but CFO Craig Shesky directly addressing short sellers. According to recent reports, Shesky warned those betting against TMC that they could be in for "a very bad day" if regulatory approval comes through. The Metals Company (TMC) Stock Surges 24% After-Hours on CFO Comments The immediate reaction? A nearly 24% jump in after-hours trading. But is this a data-driven inflection point, or just more speculative froth?
Let's break down the numbers. TMC controls an estimated $23.6 billion worth of polymetallic nodules on the Pacific Ocean floor. Their current market cap hovers around $2 billion. This discrepancy—a potential 10x upside if those nodules become accessible—forms the core argument for the bulls. Shesky is essentially saying the market is mispricing their assets.
But here's where the analysis needs to get sharper. Those $23.6 billion are in situ resources. That is, the raw, unextracted value. The cost of extraction, processing, and transportation needs to be factored in. And that's before even considering the regulatory hurdles.
The Regulatory Gamble
Shesky is betting heavily on regulatory approval. He points to President Trump's executive order aimed at accelerating deep-sea mining as a tailwind. TMC is also in talks with the Department of Energy and the Pentagon. However, these are just talks. An executive order isn't a guarantee. And government agencies move at their own pace. What if, instead of quick approvals, TMC encounters lengthy environmental impact studies, or worse, outright rejection?
The company's own timeline puts potential production starting in Q4 2027. But Shesky suggests it could be sooner if those regulatory roadblocks clear quickly. That "if" is doing a lot of work. What's the probability of this happening? I've looked at dozens of similar resource extraction projects, and accelerated timelines are the exception, not the rule.
The short thesis, presumably, hinges on these risks: regulatory delays, environmental opposition, and the sheer capital intensity of deep-sea mining. TMC posted a net loss of $184.5 million in the last quarter (compared to $20.5 million the year prior). While they have $115 million in cash, plus potential access to $430 million from warrants, that burn rate is unsustainable long-term without revenue.
Sentiment vs. Substance
Online forums (I'm looking at you, r/wallstreetbets) are predictably split. Some are chanting "short squeeze," fueled by Shesky's comments and the after-hours pop. Others are pointing to the fundamental challenges and arguing this is just a dead cat bounce. The volume of "rocket emojis" doesn't change the underlying economics.
Interestingly, Deutsche Bank recently raised its 2026 gold price prediction to $4,450/oz, citing increased structural demand. This indirectly benefits TMC, as higher precious metal prices make their nodule extraction more economically viable. But even with higher gold prices, the environmental and regulatory risks remain.
The stock has been volatile. It surged as much as 854% earlier in 2025, then pulled back sharply. This isn't a steady climb based on solid fundamentals; it's a speculative rollercoaster. The recent 17% decline in November, before Shesky's comments, highlights the fragility of investor sentiment. TMC Stock Attempts Comeback After Rare Earth Hype Faded, Targeting $11
Is This Time Really Different?
Shesky is essentially making a value argument: $23.6 billion in resources versus a $2 billion market cap. But that's a static snapshot. The real question is, what's the discounted value of those resources, considering the risks and the time it will take to extract them? And what's the probability of those risks materializing?
A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests a significant discount is warranted. Regulatory approval is not a sure thing. Environmental concerns are growing. And the technology for deep-sea mining is still relatively unproven at scale.
I'm not saying TMC is a zero. But the market is clearly pricing in a high probability of success, based on limited data. Shesky's confidence may be genuine, but it's not a substitute for regulatory approvals, proven technology, and a sustainable business model.